population expansion

Kimura M & Ohta T 1974 Probability of gene fixation in an expanding finite population. PNAS 71:3377-3379.

• we have obtained (6), based on diffusion models (see ref. 7), the probability of fixation of a mutant gene in a finite population when its selective advantage decreases exponentially with time

• u = 1 − e^{− 2s (Z / N)} ... [16]

• Z / N is given by Eq. 15

• a mutant gene has a higher chance of avoiding extinction in an increasing population than in a declining population