historical inference

Beaumont MA, Nielsen R, Robert C, Hey J, Gaggiotti O, Knowles L, Estoup A, Panchal M, Corander J, Hickerson M, Sisson SA, Fagundes N, Chikhi S, Beerli P, Vitalis R, Cornuet J-M, Huelsenbeck J, Foll M, Yang Z, Rousset F, Balding D & Excoffier L 2010 In defence of model-based inference in phylogeography. Mol Ecol 19:436-446.

• we conclude by encouraging researchers to study and use model-based inference in population genetics
• the processes inferred by NCPA have never been tested as null models to see if they can actually give rise to data sets similar to those observed
• the claim that when NCPA analyses of two or more loci lead to the same inference, this constitutes a rigorous 'cross-validation', is not based on any statistical concept of validation
• NCPA has never been successfully verified by researchers independent of its author