transition probability

Borenstein E, Meilijson I & Ruppin E 2006 The effect of phenotypic plasticity on evolution in multipeaked fitness landscapes. J Evol Biol 19:1555-1570.

• evolution is represented as a simple random walk process
• probabilities p_i (taking a +1 step) and q_i = 1 − p_i (taking a −1 step) for each location i are determined according to the differences between the fitness value of i and those of its neighbouring genetic configurations

• for a multipeaked landscape, define the drawdown R as the maximal element
• expected first-passage time is dominated by R
• E^N₀ is sharply bounded from above by N² (1 + R) / 2
• this bound is reached when all &rho_i values contributing to the drawdown collapse to a single point in the landscape